A reality check on health-care costs

Journalists tend to be a bit credulous when it comes to large numbers.  Thus we are told repeatedly that the House or Senate health-care bills will cost (fill in an astronomical number here), as if such a statement actually conveyed information.  I saw a graphic on TV news recently that said the cost would be $32,849 per family--I don't remember the actual number, which is beside the point; it's the implied 1 part in 30,000 accuracy that you should be scratching your head at. 

the three laws of inference

If I hadn't believed it, I wouldn't have seen it --- Anon

The problem of making inferences in the presence of uncertainty is ubiquitous both in science and in society. Just look at the controversy over the trends in Earth temperature and how such data influence public policy. What most people don't realize is how uncertainty permeates even the simplest measurements (which are almost never direct) and hence the whole chain of measurements that goes into even the simplest problem. Here are some simple ideas to keep in mind when interpreting claims in the news