If I hadn't believed it, I wouldn't have seen it --- Anon
The problem of making inferences in the presence of uncertainty is ubiquitous both in science and in society. Just look at the controversy over the trends in Earth temperature and how such data influence public policy. What most people don't realize is how uncertainty permeates even the simplest measurements (which are almost never direct) and hence the whole chain of measurements that goes into even the simplest problem. Here are some simple ideas to keep in mind when interpreting claims in the news
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